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Social Housing Plan - Projected future demand

Subsection eight in Section six of our Social Housing Plan.

Learn more about social housing Part A - Section 1 Recommended strategies and actions Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 Section 8 Section 9 Section 10 Section 11 Social Housing Plan 2020 - 2041

The demand for social housing is projected to increase in line with population increases over the next 25 years.  The projected demand for social housing is estimated by:

  • applying the rate of population increase to 2016 estimated demand
  • assuming that the proportion of households in housing stress stays the same at 11 percent

Population forecasts for Geelong were developed by ID Consulting in July 2019 and take into account new growth areas, as identified in the City of Greater Geelong Settlement Strategy.


Table 15: Projected population, households and dwellings - 2016 to 2041

 201620212026203120362041
Population239,531268,984298,716330,428361,014393,216
Dwellings106,568119,659133,643148,103161,978176,622
Households95,840107,371119,467132,332144,822158,111
Demand for social housing (households)10,19611,42312,71014,07815,40716,821

Source: forecastid.com, based on information provided by the City of Greater Geelong

Figure 13 on the following page illustrates the projected population growth by Area, over the next 25 years.

Major growth areas in the City of Greater Geelong over the next 25 years include:

  • Armstrong Creek, Marshall and Charlemont (Area 1)
  • Lovely Banks, Rural North (Area 15)
  • Bell Park, Bell Post Hill, North Geelong (Area 11)
  • Hamlyn Heights, Fyansford (Area 12)

The established areas around Geelong are expected to grow by 15-20 percent through infill, and the development of housing around activity centres.

Towns on the Bellarine Peninsula are expected to grow at moderate rates (30-40 percent) over the next 25 years, mainly through broad hectare development (constrained within town boundaries), and also through higher density developments in existing activity centres [11].

In summary:

This section has shown that the estimated total demand for social housing in Geelong is far greater than the current number of households living in social housing. There is also clear evidence that the need for social hosing is greatest amongst certain households including: single parent households; lone person households, and other groups such as newly arrived and refuges families. There is also evidence that the certain areas have higher demand for social housing, particularly, Corio and Norlane (26 percent of total demand) and Newcomb (18 percent of demand).

The following section explores the current supply of social housing in Geelong including the location and ownership of social housing and potential areas which might respond to future social housing needs.


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