The following sections highlight the economic outlook for the Avalon Corridor including consideration of issues and opportunities and associated implications that will need to be considered in the future planning of this area.

The aim of the Strategy is to set the direction for the future use and development of land between Geelong and Werribee. It examines how the green break between Lara and Little River can be protected with potential for the wider area to accommodate utilities and other complementary employment generating uses. Identifying the land use and development potential of the state significant Avalon Airport is also a strategic aim of the project.

Resident population numbers in the surrounding region incorporating the cities of Greater Geelong and Wyndham are expected to increase from 547 880 people in 2021 to reach 865 000 people over the 20-year period to 2041. This represents a net increase of +317 120 residents at an average annual rate of +2.3%.

Almost two-thirds of the increase in population (64%) is forecast to be generated in WCC (a net increase of +203 080 residents) with the remainder occurring in Greater Geelong (+114 040 residents).

The resident labour force in Greater Geelong and Wyndham combined is expected to increase by an estimated +148 530 people over the period 2021 to 2041. This estimate takes into account the growth in resident population noted above and application of the estimated (crude) labour force participation rate in Greater Geelong and Wyndham (46.8% combined).

The Avalon Corridor has the potential to accommodate a substantial share of new jobs for the region in light of its unique attributes. These attributes include:

• A high level of accessibility via the Princes Freeway the Geelong Ring Road the planned OMR Transport Corridor and the Geelong-Melbourne rail line.
• Major infrastructure including Avalon Airport WTP and the proposed Bay West Port.

An analysis of existing and future infrastructure in the Avalon Corridor highlights several important opportunities to support investment and job creation. Avalon Airport is a significant feature which has potential to attract further investment and development (both airport and non-airport related). Such investment would likely strengthen the airport’s existing economic role in the Avalon Corridor and generate net economic benefits extending further afield.

Other important factors supporting the Avalon Corridor’s development include road and rail transport infrastructure especially the OMR Transport Corridor that will provide links to the north of metropolitan Melbourne and to the Hume Freeway. Development of a new seaport at Bay West in the long-term would alleviate container freight capacity pressures for the Port of Melbourne and strengthen the Avalon Corridor’s freight role.

Potential for the development of tourism associated with the Avalon Corridor is noted which builds on existing events such as the Avalon Airshow the nearby Wurdi Youang / You Yangs environmental features (including the Ramsar wetlands with associated bird species) and the development of bike paths and coastal walks. The Port Phillip Bay Trail will be a visitor attraction when the missing link between Wyndham and Greater Geelong is completed. However this is unlikely to result in the Avalon Corridor becoming a noted visitor destination in its own right (such as the Bellarine Peninsula).

Land identified in the Avalon Corridor with potential to be developed for employment purposes totals approximately 1 800 hectares in net developable area (NDA). This land supply would indicatively support around 36 000 jobs assuming 1 hectare of developable employment land would support 20 full time equivalent (FTE) jobs.

Assuming annual employment land consumption is equivalent to 15 percent of the recent uptake per annum of industrial land in Greater Geelong and Wyndham (combined) the Avalon Corridor could accommodate an estimated additional 5 040 direct FTE jobs over a 20 year period. This is equivalent to 14 percent of the 36 000 additional FTE jobs that could be supported if full development of identified land was to occur. As such existing and potential land supply in the Avalon Corridor exceeds the likely area of land that could be developed over the next 20 years.

However employment figures outlined in this section are highly indicative and are based on preliminary modelling only. Job estimates and targets will be further refined through subsequent planning processes once precinct boundaries have been confirmed and land uses have been further refined.

While an employment land demand and supply assessment is applicable to Avalon Corridor future development will also be informed by its strategic location between Melbourne and Geelong and key infrastructure such as Avalon Airport. In this regard the actual development trajectory of the Avalon Corridor is influenced by a wide range of factors and a significant level of uncertainty.

In light of the large quantum of developable land it will be necessary to avoid fragmented development that detracts from functionality and economic viability of new employment areas. A key outcome of the Avalon Corridor Strategy is therefore to identify strategic areas for future employment land supply.

A number of development proposals for land located nearby Avalon Airport demonstrate private sector interest in developing sites for industrial and employment activities. An important consideration for the Avalon Corridor Strategy is to ensure that development is complementary to existing uses (such as Avalon Airport) and consistent with broader strategic planning directions for Greater Geelong and Wyndham.

The Avalon Corridor Strategy needs to acknowledge that emerging economic trends such as continued economic expansion in Asia and population growth in Melbourne and Geelong will impact on the locational decisions of firms and prospects for future investment and employment. The Strategy needs to be sufficiently flexible to respond to changing circumstances as technological advancements and associated impacts become more clearly understood.

Important trends that influence future development include continuing growth in agricultural exports digital technologies and advanced manufacturing economic growth among Australia’s trading partners and the Avalon Corridor’s linkages to metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria where population growth continues.

Key issues

• The need to protect the Avalon Corridor as a location for state significant infrastructure including the Avalon Airport Melbourne Water WTP road and rail infrastructure Wyndham RDF quarries and the future Bay West Port.
• The need to accommodate for substantial population and labour force growth in western metropolitan Melbourne (including Wyndham) and Greater Geelong.
• The need to ensure that development of new employment precincts and services in the Avalon Corridor does not undermine existing industrial land provisions or centre hierarchies of Greater Geelong and Wyndham.
• The need to identify owner-occupier opportunities for long term confident investment in the precinct noting that Avalon Airport is largely made up of leasehold land owned by the Commonwealth Government.

Key opportunities

• Promoting the development potential of the Avalon Corridor as an important employment node with state significant infrastructure and associated services.
• Ensuring the continued growth and development of Avalon Airport and recognising its national and international function for air travel and freight as well as its role as an emerging employment hub.
• Land surrounding Avalon Airport benefits from the transport gateway and presents an opportunity for a varied scale of owner-occupier investment in development which is compatible with the airport such as commercial and industrial land uses.
• Potential to position the Avalon Corridor as a tourism gateway and focal point in the region as well as to support tourism opportunities associated with existing assets including the Avalon Airshow Wurdi Youang / the You Yangs the Port Phillip Bay Trail ecotourism associated with coastal wetlands (such as bird watching and guided educational tours) and other rural focused tourism uses.

Given the Avalon Corridor’s unique economic context and attributes there is an opportunity for development of employment precincts with modern business park attributes. Employment precincts could accommodate activities such as:

• Metropolitan and regional scale warehouse and distribution facilities exceeding 40 000 square metres in built floorspace
• Commercial offices within business park settings supported by retail and other amenities.

However it is important that the Avalon Corridor Strategy achieves a balance between:

• Potential economic benefits including creation of local jobs and employment opportunities; and
• Potential impacts on activity centre hierarchies and the orderly supply of employment land in the wider region. To reach a balance between these considerations the Avalon Corridor Strategy provides broad guidance on the type and extent of future employment uses to be established within the Avalon Corridor.