ACS - Emerging trends and influences
Acknowledgement of Country Appendix One Avalon Airport Analysis Cultural values and heritage analysis Economic Analysis Emerging trends and influences Environmental analysis Executive summary and vision statement Figures, diagrams and abbreviations Framework Plan Implementation Introduction Landscape character analysis Land use analysis Metropolitan and municipal context Opportunities, constraints and issues Strategic land use studies and planning policy Toward a conceptual framework plan Transport analysis Utilities servicing analysis
The current pace of technological change is expected to create significant changes in future employment markets, including the creation of new jobs and industries that do not currently exist. Administrative, manufacturing and production roles are most likely to see dramatic declines with the rise of automation.
Conversely, the demand for advanced mathematics and computer science skills will likely increase. While there are anticipated increases in skilled employment associated with the implementation, management and servicing of new and emerging technologies, the true extent of this employment cannot be accurately estimated.
Future advancement and wider usage of 3D printing will reduce manufacturing costs and provide greater opportunity to deliver new products to the market. Future energy sources and potential decreases in energy costs could drive productivity, leading to further economic growth. However, technological advancements also have potential to create greater disparity in income distribution, resulting from a loss of lower skilled labour opportunities.
Rapid population growth and urbanisation will continue globally throughout the course of the century. Such processes will drive growth and demand in numerous sectors, particularly food production.
A growing global population is expected to demand 35 percent more food by 2030, whilst the demand for a variety of food products will increase as incomes rise, particularly in cities. Although urban expansion continues to accelerate in metropolitan Melbourne and central Geelong, the rate of expansion is considerably slower than that experienced at a global level.
Rapid global urbanisation will drive new commercial opportunities in food production, to respond to growing demand. The Avalon Corridor is well positioned to capture some of these opportunities, in light of its unique attributes and assets such as available agricultural land, potential access to recycled water, a robust transport and freight network and the ability to move goods domestically and internationally via Avalon Airport and the future Bay West Port.
The Avalon Corridor also presents potential renewable energy and circular economy opportunities that will help to address climate change. This includes generation of recycled water, biosolids and biogas at the Melbourne Water WTP, which currently treats 50 percent of Melbourne’s sewage. Based on projected population growth, sewage load is expected to double by 2050. Similar opportunities are associated with the Barwon Water Northern Treatment Plant in Corio.
Noting the availability of agricultural land and potential access to a significant supply of recycled water, food production would appear to have substantial potential within the Avalon Corridor, with the added benefit of easy access to Avalon Airport for rapid export to global markets.
In this context, a variety of technological and scientific advancements are having significant impacts on agricultural and food production sectors, including:
- Precision agriculture or satellite farming, involving GPS tracking systems and satellite imagery to monitor crop yields, soil levels, and weather patterns to increase efficiency.
- Technological farming assistance, including the use of drones and wireless sensors.
- Emerging water conservation and sustainability initiatives, including strategically placed irrigation and dry land agriculture techniques.
The cost of producing recycled water to support agricultural production in the Avalon Corridor remains an issue, with price exceeding farmers’ willingness to pay.
However, this has the potential to change in future either through technological advancements reducing the cost of recycled water production, or (as an example) state or federal governments subsidising water recycling costs to generate investment in this sector. There is opportunity to also consider recycled water use beyond farming and food production.
These considerations represent only a fraction of changes anticipated through technological advancements. Opportunities and issues associated with these changes will need to be managed by various sectors. Governmental policies at the global and national level will form an integral part of this process.
While it is beyond the scope of the Avalon Corridor Strategy to predict or respond to the breadth of anticipated technological advancements and associated
impacts, the Strategy recognises the need for flexibility to adapt to future change.